Analytical reasoning
Evaluate claims, assumptions and competing explanations.
What you will learn
- Separate a claim from its supporting evidence.
- Identify unstated assumptions and alternative explanations.
- Choose a conclusion proportionate to the evidence.
Begin by stating the exact conclusion being proposed. List the evidence that directly supports it, then separate background information that is merely associated with the outcome.
Look for an unstated bridge between evidence and conclusion. Ask whether selection effects, measurement error, timing or another cause could explain the same pattern.
A strong conclusion is calibrated. It says what the evidence supports, what remains uncertain and what additional observation would materially change the decision.